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PLUS: The Big Short guy's take on what's next

INFLATION HOT, BANK PANIC COOLS

Thanks to all you Basis Pointers who've signed up for our newsletter! We truly appreciate your support, and we’ll now go daily at 9am PT/12pm ET with useful, quick, creative intel on housing, fintech, banking, media, marketing, pop culture, and some politics (about money, homes, tech). We’ll also sparingly send you market and deal news when it breaks.

With the banking crisis playing out, we're going heavier than normal (hence all the stories below), but there should be something for everyone as you scroll.

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Have a great day, and let's hope this bank crisis keeps cooling off like it is today.

Will Fed hike again March 22 after Feb CPI inflation stays high and bank crisis calms?

February CPI inflation overall 6% and Core 5.5%, same as January, and persistently high so Fed may still hike March 14 - The Basis Point
Mortgage rates down even on persistent February inflation as bond investors bet Fed will hike but banking crisis not over just yet.
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Michael Burry of The Big Short fame tweets 2023 bank crisis 'could resolve very quickly'

Michael Burry tweet sees no true danger and 2023 bank crisis could 'resolve very quickly' - he known for The Big Short fame after calling 2008 housing crisis correctly - The Basis Point
Michael Burry tweet says "This crisis could resolve very quickly. I am not seeing true danger here." Let's hope he's right.
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First Republic up 50%, leading regional bank relief rally

First Republic pre-market Tuesday trading was 40% as fears of an SVB-like bank run wane for now on the San Francisco bank.
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Why Tim Mayopoulos is a strong FDIC choice for Silicon Valley Bank’s new CEO

FDIC named Mayopoulos to oversee a newly created SVB bridge bank operating under a board appointed by the FDIC to assume deposits and certain liabilities of the failed bank.
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Bond king Jeff Gundlach predicts Fed hike March 22, says why recession could be in 'a few months'

Jeff Gundlach recession prediction on a CNBC interview March 13, 2022 - The Basis Point
In all the past recessions going back for decades, the yield curve starts de-inverting a few months before the recession comes in.
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Banks Fail A Lot: 565 banks failed 2000-2023, and only 55% of deposits are insured

565 U.S. bank failures 2000-2023 and banks failed at a rate of about 2 per month from 2011-2023 - The Basis Point
In 2008 $250k of FDIC insurance covered 80% of deposits, today it only covers 55%, and uninsured deposits grew $2.2t in last 3yrs alone.
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'Goliath Is Winning' - Wells Fargo bank analyst Mike Mayo upgrades JP Morgan Chase stock

Goliath Is Winning in banking. Wells Fargo analyst Mike Mayo upgrades JP Morgan Chase stock
A big bank analyst at Wells Fargo upgraded his stock rating of JP Morgan Chase. A fairly obvious sentiment at this time, but still one worth sharing. Goliath Is Winning in banking.
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First Republic told CNBC on Mon, March 13 'it's business as usual' - here's the video

CNBC's Jim Cramer talked to First Republic executive chairman Jim Herbert, and said they're not seeing massive outflows and the business was operating as usual. Here's CNBC report and reaction.
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Biden says bank deposits are safe for all Americans: VIDEO

Biden assures depositors in US banks that there deposits will be there when needed - The Basis Point
Here's the full video of Biden talking Monday, March 13 about the banking crisis triggered by Silicon Valley Bank's demise. Biden says bank deposits are safe for everyone.
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10 things we still don't know about the Silicon Valley Bank unraveling

Barry Ritholtz points out that all crises reveal lots of information about impacted firms and sectors long after the crisis events. Here are key questions about SVB we don't know yet.
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Does the Fed's 2% inflation target even matter?

As the Fed raises rates to bring us back to 2% inflation, is this long-held “rule of economics” even relevant? Here's a case for ditching this inflation target.
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